country	elec_date	change	comments
Guatemala	1/19/1958	victory to N	This election was held after the assasination of Carlos Castillo de Armas, founder of the National Liberation Movement. In this election, the victor, Miguel Ydigoras, ran against the coalition that included the National Liberation Movement. As such, the incumbent party lost here.
Guatemala	3/6/1966	victory to N	Prior to election the founder of the Institutional Democratic Party Enrique Peralta Azurdia stages a coup and becomes head of state. His party and the Revolutionary Party were supposed to cooperate in election but founder of former dies and throws a wrench in that whole plan. The PID then loses, resulting in a loss for the incumbent.
Guatemala	3/5/1978	victory to N	Coalition that supported previous candidate broke up so no incumbent for this election
Guatemala	1/7/1996	victory to N	Previous office holder was independent former human rights ombudsman and he didn't run so there was no incumbent to contest election
Haiti	1/17/1988	victory to N	Henri Namphy was leader of previous post-Duvalier Council of Government, this election was to choose a successor. As far as I can tell, Namphy wasn't affiliated with a political party, so there's no incumbent that ran.
Honduras	9/22/1957	changed date; victory to N	Current date listed is for legislative elections. The election by the constituent assembly that elected Ramon Villeda Morales was on 11/16/1957, while he also took over for the military junta so there was no incumbent in this race
Honduras	11/29/2009	victory to N	interim president Roberto Micheletti was of the liberal party while the winner Porfirio Lobo Sosa was of the national party
Panama	5/9/1948	victory to Y	Although Arnulfo Arias Madrid was the last elected president and ran again in 1948, he was formally deposed from office in sept 1941. Following this, there were three interim presidents, the last of which was a member of the same party as our 1948 winner, Domingo Diaz Arosemena. As such, this would technically be a case of incumbent victory.
Panama	5/11/1952	victory to N	incumbent was interim president Alcibiades Arosemena of the authentic revolutionary party, and victor was Jose Antonia Remon Cantera of an electoral alliance the CPN. The CPN included the incumbent's party but obviously it's a much broader coalition and can't be said to be representative of the incumbent.
Panama	5/4/2014	victory to N	Though the victor was the incumbent vice president, he broke from the incumbent's party and challenged them and won.
St. Kitts and Nevis	7/3/1995	victory to N	People's Action Movement leader Simmonds was incumbent PM and the PAM lost this election, with the Labor Party leader becoming PM afterwards
St. Vincent	12/9/1974	victory to N	A PPP government was formed in the previous election with an independent MP breaking the tie between the PPP and SVLP in the former's favor. Then the SVLP won this election.
Bolivia	1/5/1947	change to Y	Head of state transferred from Tomas Monje Gutierrez to Enrique Hertzog Garaizabal
Bolivia	5/6/1951	victory to N	So incumbent regime resigns in favor of a military junta when it looked like the opposition party was going to win
Bolivia	post 1985
Brazil	10/3/1955	victory to Y	Nereu Ramos of the Social Democratic Party was incumbent and Jusceline K. of Social Democratic Party won, so technically counts as victory.
Brazil	4/14/1964	victory to N; added day	Post 1964 coup, Mazilli was elevated from president to chamber of deputies to presidency on interim basis but upon this election the military government gets installed so no incumbent really ran or won
Brazil	post 2002	added missing election rounds; altered elecnumbers accordingly
Chile	1946-1970	added missing indirect election rounds, altered elecnumbers accordingly
Ecuador	6/2/1968	victory to N; change to Y	Otto Arosemena Gomez was interim incumbent after coup, Jose Maria Velasco Ibarra was victor, both were from different parties
Ecuador	5/25/1997	victory to Y	This took place after Abdala Bucaram was removed from office by the congress and Fabian Alarcon took office. The referendum was meant to confirm these actions that had already been taken and so it passing was a victory for the then-incumbent (Alarcon)
Guyana	7/10/1978	type to R	This was miscoded as a legislative election, the date was that of a referendum
Peru	6/10/1945	change to Y	power shifted between manuel prado ugarteche and jose bustamante y rivero, both of different parties
Peru	6/17/1956	victory to N	power shifted between manuel odria and manuel prado ugarteche, both of different parties
Uruguay	10/31/1999	victory to Y	power switched from Julio Sanguinetti to Jorge Battle but both are from the Colorado Party and Sanguinetti didn't run again
Uruguay	10/31/2004	victory to N; change to Y	power shifted from Jorge Battle to Tabare Vazquez so incumbent lost and there was a change in power
Bhutan	5/31/2013	added missing election rounds
Sri Lanka	12/19/1988	change to Y	PM Ranasinghe Premadasa was elected to succeed incumbent president Jayawardene
South Korea	12/18/1997	victory to N; change to Y	power switched from incumbent Kim Young Sam to Kim Dae Jung
Philippines	2/7/1986	victory to Y; change to N	Ferdinand Marcos technically "won" the election despite it being rigged, he was forced out 19 days after the election took place which is a separate event from the election. The outcome of the election was victory with no change
North Korea	all elections	changed type to L from X	These should all be parliamentary elections and the dates correspond to legislative election dates in Nohlen. Presidential elections did take place from 1972 until 1990. The office was vacant from 1994 until 1998 and was thereafter abolished as Kim Jong-Il was given title of Eternal President.
Myanmar	11/8/2015	victory to N	Thein Sein of the USDP ended up losing the presidency after Htin Kyaw of the NLD was elected president by the legislature� after which he approves the bill that allows Aung San Suu Kyi to become State Chancellor or whatever
Mongolia	7/9/2017	victory to Y	newly elected president and professional sambo wrestler Khaltmagiin Battulga of the DP succeeded his fellow DP member Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj
Kyrgyz Republic	12/11/2016	change to N	the referendum expanded executive power at the expense of the legislature and judiciary so would be considered a victory, but president Atambayev stayed in office until November of the following year
Japan	6/22/1980	change to Y	leadership changed from interim PM Masayoshi Ito to Zendo Suzuki, both within the LDP
Indonesia	9/20/2004	victory to N	power shifted from president Megawati of the Indonesian Democratic Party to president Yudhoyono of the Democrat Party, pretty easy to see how those got confused
East Timor	5/9/2007	victory to N	power shifted from Xanana Gusmao to Jose Ramos-Horta. While it would seem that Ramos-Horta was a political ally of Gusmao, this was in an informal sense as Ramos-Horta was an independent and Gusmao founded a new party just ahead of general elections to try and become PM. As such, it doesn't appear to me that there was any incumbent running for the presidency at least.
Algeria	2004-2014	change to N	all changes to N. Bouteflika was in power during this time so there obviously wasn't a change in head of state
Egypt	9/11/1971	victory to Y	This referendum passing was an important step in solidifying Sadat's rule after he assumed power following Nasser's death and didn't appreciably diminish his power as ruler.
Egypt	10/2/1976	date from 9/16/1976 to 10/2/1976	In the Noehlen book the date of the presidential election this year is Oct 2, though in the political handbook it says that Sadat "accepted" a second term on Sept 16. Not sure what "accepted" means but I assume that means he agreed to run again since it's not like he was going to lose, but can't be exactly sure. In any case, the actual election certainly took place on Oct 2.
Egypt	1976-1981	added elec_day values	For referendums in this period added elec_day for date actual election took place, but not announcement days
Egypt	10/13/1981	type to X	Another presidential referendum that was coded as a referendum
Egypt	3/26/2007	type to R	miscoded as a presidential election, was a constitutional referendum
Egypt	5/26/2014	type to X	miscoded as a referendum, was the election of Sisi
Iran	7/28/1989	victory to Y; added elec_day	this referendum changed the requirements to become supreme leader which Khamenei obviously wanted since he wanted to occupy that office, also expanded powers of presidency which he passed to his ally Rafsanjani as well. I feel like this ammounts to an electoral victory. Also added date of voting for referendum (28).
Iran	6/17/2005	added second round of voting	altered elecnumber stuff and what have you to reflect second round of voting
Libya	7/7/2012	changed date; deleted Announced row	the date wasn't for the indirect presidential election being referenced here, it was for the parliamentary election that preceded it. Entered the corrected date and deleted the announced row since it was the announcement date for the wrong election.
Sudan	4/21/1968	victory to Y; change to N	Mahjoub remained in office through this election until he was removed in a coup the following year
Syria	9/1/1961	type to X; direct to N; elec_day changed	This was mistakenly coded as as a constitutional referendum while the actual election of interest was the indirect presidential one that occurred two weeks after the referendum.
Syria	12/3/1971	change to Y	Presidency switched to Hafez al-Assad from Ahmad al-Khatib
Tunisia	12/21/2014	victory to N	Winner Beji Caid Essebsi ran directly against the incumbent Moncef Marzouki, who was caretaker president
Turkey	5/2/1954	change to N	Adnan Menderes remained PM from 1950 to 1960 uninterrupted, was also during a time when one party rule was being solidified.
Turkey	6/5/1977	victory to N; change to Y	though no party won a majority, Demirel's government fell in mid-June and he was replaced by Ecevit as PM even though Ecevit's government also fell in early July and then Demirel came back to power. This is obviously a short tenure but the sequence of event is election, incumbent loses office, and opposition takes power so I feel this is the correct coding
Cape Verde	12/17/1995	change to N	PM Carlos Veiga was first came to power as PM on April 4, 1990 and stayed in that office until July 2000, so there was no change in the PM's office due to this election
Guinea-Bissau	1972/1989	date changes for actual elections that took place	changed election dates to reflect the actual dates which indirect voting took place, not the legislative elections that preceded such votes
Equatorial Guinea	9/22/1968	added second round of voting	altered elecnumber stuff and what have you to reflect second round of voting
Equatorial Guinea	11/13/2011	victory to Y	This referendum was speculated to be a step in the president handpicking his son to succeed him. But either way the government fixed the election in order to get the plebiscite to pass so it doesn't make sense to list victory as N
Mali	4/12/1992	added first round of voting	only listed the second round of voting, which actually had the date for the first round of voting. Adjusted elecnumbers and what have you accordingly
Senegal	3/22/1959	date to 9/5/1960	the original 1959 date was when Senegal was part of the Federation of Mali, while the election date was that of a legislative election. The next indirect presidential election was on 9/5/1960 which took place after Senegal left the union in August and was the same day the country declared itself the Republic of Senegal
Benin	1/19/1964	type to X	type was originally R but the date for the referendum that year was on Jan 5 not Jan 19
Benin	7/28/1968	type to X; change to N	this was a presidential referendum but as was decided with Egypt these are presidential elections not referendums. Also change to N because the president was appointed by the military prior to the election and this election was just a confirmation of this appointment
Benin	1/5/1964	added referendum election, previously missing	added this election, see 1/19/1964 entry for issue with previous referendum coding and date
Benin	3/31/1968	change to N	this referendum was on establishing a presidential system with no term limits and a unicameral legislature. The next leadership change that took place was following the appointment of Zinsou as president following the annulled elections on 5/5/1968
Benin	3/9/1970	victory to N	the incumbent government was military and the three candidates were civilians, so no incumbent could have won to make victory Y. in addition, the election results were annulled and all three candidates put into a rotating presidency type of thing
Mauritania	3/11/2007	added first round of voting
Guinea	1/27/1961	victory to Y; change to N (both in announcement row)	fixed typo where the announcement row had the victory and change reversed
Liberia	7/19/1997	added victory and change codings	victory and change were just missing for some reason, coded N and Y, respectively. Interim president Ruth Perry was replaced by National Patriotic Party leader and all around lovely guy Charles Taylor
Liberia	10/11/2005	victory to N; change to Y	Interim president Charles Gyude Bryant did not run nor was he the same party as the ultimate victor, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf
Sierra Leone	5/3/1957	change to N	Sir Milton Margai had been initially been made chief minister in 1953-54 according to Britannica so he would already have been the incumbent technically
Sierra Leone	3/7/2018	added victory and change codings
Ghana	12/7/2008	added second round of voting	second round of voting was missing
Gabon	8/30/2009	change to Y	after president bongo died, rose francine rogombe took over as interim president and then in this election ali ben bongo won, so there was change in the individual
Central African Republic	12/28/1994	type to R	this was incorrectly coded as a presidential election, was the date of a referendum and no presidential election was held this year
Congo	6/2/1992	added second round of voting
Burkina Faso	5/14/1978	added second round of voting
Democratic Republic of Congo	6/24/1973	deleted record	this was a duplicate of the referendum held in Congo-Brazzaville. No referendum was held in DRC on this date
Kenya	12/27/2007	victory to Y; change to N	Though he ran under another party banner, President Mwai Kibaki was reelected as a result of this election. I think the confusion might have been that Raila Odinga was made the first ever prime minister after post-election negotiations.
Djibouti	4/9/1999	change to Y	power switched from Gouled to Guelleh
Ethiopia	6/14/1987	date to 9/10/1987	previous date was that of the legislative election, september date is that of the actual indirect presidential election, which took place one day after the new legislature convened.
Ethiopia	5/15/2005	change to N	leadership remained with Meles Zenawi following this election
South Africa	5/26/1948	change to Y	The UP-DP-SALP government of Jans Smuts fell to the NP in this election, resulting in a change of power from Jans Smuts to Daniel F. Malan
Namibia	11/7/1989	date to 2/16/1990; direct to N	the date originally listed (11/7/1989) was that of the constituent assembly elections that took place after the UN-brokered deal for Namibian independence, the first elections of Sam Nujoma took place on the revised date and were indirect, with the majority SWAPO assembly electing him rather than direct vote
Namibia	11/30/1999	change to N	Sujoma remained in power following this election
Namibia	11/15/2004	change to Y	SWAPO retained presidency but Sujoma opted not to run and the party nominated Pohamba in his stead
Cuba	10/xx/1990	deleted change and victory coding	this election was voided, victory and change codings should be blank
Egypt	9/xx/2011	deleted change and victory coding	this election was voided, victory and change codings should be blank
Lesotho	1/27/1970	type to Voided; deleted change and victory coding	incumbent anulled election before results could be certified and declared state of emergency
Lesotho	5/26/2012	victory to N; change to Y	incumbent PM not reelected while Tom Thabane of the opposition ABC managed to create a coalition and took over as PM. Probably mistaken cause incumbent party won a majority and was initially reported they had "won"
Comoros	general	added all second voting rounds; adjusted elecnumbers accordingly	almost all second round codings were missing
Mauritius	8/7/1967	victory to Y; change to N	prior to winning this election Seewoosagur Ramgoolam was chief minister and premier under British controlled Mauritius so he would be the incumbent
Mauritius	7/3/2005	victory to N; change to Y	Berenger of the MMM/MSM alliance was defeated by the MLP-led coalition and replaced by Navin Ramgoolam
Australia	5/9/1953	deleted record	This was an off election for part of the Senate, however this does not result in a renewed competition for the PM's office, which makes coding victory/defeat meaningless so this isn't an appropriate election to include in the data
Papua New Guinea	5/6/1982	victory to N	Julius Chan of the PPP knocked Somare out of power in 1980 with a vote of no confidence and was the incumbent for this election, which Somare's Pangu party won, returning Somare to power
Samoa	5/10/1961	date to 2/4/1961	the original date listed was that of the countries independence/constitutional referendum, not parliamentary elections
Micronesia	general	removed leg elections that did not coincide with prez elections	see justification document
Palau	9/22/1992	added first round of voting
Palau	11/4/2008	added first round of voting
Nauru	12/6/1980	victory to Y; change to N; added day	Hammer DeRoburt was reelected, also added the day of the month
Netherlands	5/25/1977	victory to N	Incumbent PM was Joop Den Uyl of the Labor party, but his govt collapsed after his party and the CDA had a falling out. But after the elections CDA leader Andreas Van Agt formed a minority government with the VVD, so the incumbent was replaced by former governing partner
Belgium	11/8/1981	change to Y	On April 8, 1981 Wilfried Martens of the CVP resigns in favor of Mark Eyskens. Then Eyskens triggers calling of elections on Sept 21 1981, after which Martens then forms government which receives approval on Dec 17, 1981. All this to say, there was change in the HOG after this election
Luxembourg	6/7/2015	victory to N	The incumbent pushed for all three provisions in this referendum, including the introduction of term limits. All three were rejected by voters, meaning this was a loss
France	12/5/1965	runoff to [1,2]	Everything was formatted and dated correctly to reflect the two rounds of voting, runoff just got left with N on accident it appears
Switzerland	10/25/1959	victory to N	due to tie in number of seats changed victory to N, see coding justification
Switzerland	10/27/1963	victory to N	b/c the last election resulted in a tie, there was no incumbent here
Switzerland	10/29/1967	victory to N	due to tie in number of seats changed victory to N, see coding justification
Switzerland	10/31/1971	victory to N	b/c the last election resulted in a tie, there was no incumbent here
Switzerland	10/21/1979	victory to N	due to tie in number of seats changed victory to N, see coding justification
Switzerland	10/18/1987	change to N	Free Democratic Party retained plurality in Federal Assembly
Switzerland	10/20/1991	change to N	Free Democratic Party retained plurality in Federal Assembly
Switzerland	10/22/1995	victory to Y; change to N	Free Democratic Party retained plurality in Federal Assembly
Switzerland	10/24/1999	change to N	Free Democratic Party retained plurality in Federal Assembly
Switzerland	10/21/2007	change to N	Swiss People's Party retained plurality in the Federal Assembly
Switzerland	10/23/2011	change to N	Swiss People's Party retained plurality in the Federal Assembly
Switzerland	10/18/2015	change to N	Swiss People's Party retained plurality in the Federal Assembly
Spain	12/15/1976	victory to Y; added elec_day	This referendum was heavily pushed for by the newly appointed PM Adolfo Suarez Gonzalez and the fairly new king Juan Carlos de Borbon
Spain	12/6/1978	victory to Y	Again this referendum was part of the project for democratization pushed by Adolfo Suarez Gonzalez and the king so it's approval is a victory for the government
Poland	11/5/1995	added first round of voting
Poland	10/8/2000	runoff to N	runoff was listed as 2, but no runoff ocurred
Poland	10/9/2005	added first round of voting
Poland	5/25/2015	added first round of voting
Hungary	1949-1985	added change values
Czechoslovakia	6/8/1990	altered victory and change in "Announced" row to reflect those in "Vote, Early" row	for some reason the victory and change values were opposite of what was in the Vote, Early row
Macedonia	6/1/2008	victory to Y; change to N	The VMRO-DPMNE won a pretty large victory and incumbent PM Gruevski formed a new government
Macedonia	6/5/2011	victory to Y; change to N	VMRO-DPMNE again got the most seats and PM Gruevski formed a new government
Croatia	1/24/2000	added second round of voting	as always, adjuste elecnumbers accordingly
Serbia	9/21/1997	added second round of voting; event to "Anulled" for second round; added new election event for 12/7/1997 and 12/21/1997	the election listed here had two rounds but the second was anulled due to low turnout and the election was rerun for the December dates listed
Serbia	9/29/2002	date for second round to 10/13/2002; event to "Anulled"	the date was for the separate elections held in December, election got anulled due to low turnout
Serbia	12/8/2002	added observation	this had erroneously been listed as the second round of the previous election. Added here, was anulled due to low turnout again
Serbia	5/6/2012	victory to N; change to Y	the incumbent PM Mirko Cvetkovic was a compromise independent while the winner was from a coalition of several parties. So there wasn't an incument and the victor ran in a new coalition of several parties.
Denmark	1/10/1984	date for "Announced" to 12/16/1983	a typo had the month for the Announced record at 0, so I put the date that the previous parliament was dissolved which triggered these early elections
San Marino	Sep-51	victory to Y	the communist-socialist governing alliance continued after this election. It lasted between 1945 and 1957
San Marino	12/8/2019	victory to N; change to Y	coding was missing here
Kosovo	6/8/2014	victory to N; change to Y	following 6 months of negotiations Isa Mustafa of the LDK became PM, taking over from Hashim Thaci of the PDK who remained in the government as foreign minister
Greece	7/29/1973	victory to Y; change to N	The junta of papadopoulos had pushed for this referendum in order to put the nail in the coffin of the monarchy, and would therefore be a victory since it passed. But there was also no change in leadership due to the referendum so change is N.
Cyprus	2/14/1988	added second round of voting
Cyprus	2/7/1993	added second round of voting
Cyprus	2/8/1998	added second round of voting
Cyprus	1/28/2018	victory for first round to Y	changed victory in first round to match outcome in second round of voting
Bulgaria	1/24/2017	in "Announced" victory to N; change to Y	the victory and change values were the opposite in the "Announced" row, changed to match the Vote row
Romania	Mar-74	deleted victory and change	this was a Deadline Not Met event so the victory and change should be blank
Romania	1992-2000	type to X	these dates corresponded to runoffs for presidential elections
Romania	11/16/2014	added first round of voting
Romania	5/2/2017	deleted record	this date corresponded to no legislative or presidential election that I was able to locate
Russia	3/17/1991	victory to Y	Referendum. Gorbachev pushed for this referendum in the hopes that voters would give him a mandate to keep the Soviet Union together. Though this ultimately failed, he did win the referendum so this should be counted as victory
Russia	7/3/1996	added runoff numbers	runoff columns had Y instead of the actual runoff numbers
Lithuania	6/13/2004	added second round of voting; victory to N	prior to election Rolandas Paksas was impeached and the speaker of the Seimas Paulauksas was sworn in as president. Paksas was not allowed to run in the election and Adamkas, a rival of Paksas, won the election.
Lithuania	5/17/2009	victory to N	incumbent Adamkus was an independent as was the victor of this election Dalia Grybauskaite so it's impossible to say that there was incumbent victory
Lithuania	5/11/2014	added first round of voting
Ukraine	6/26/1994	victory to N	incumbent Leonid Kravchuk ran against and lost to Leonid Kuchma
Ukraine	10/31/2004	event to Voided	this was the first attempt to hold a second round of voting but the Supreme Council refused to certify the results so another was held. I also changed the sequence to 3 for the second round of voting that actually got held
Ukraine	5/25/2014	runoff to N	runoff was listed as 2, but no runoff ocurred
Armenia	3/16/1998	added first round of voting
Armenia	11/1/2018	added victory and change codings to "Announced" event
Georgia	11/5/1995	victory to Y; change to N	Eduard Shevardnandze, who had been in power since 1992, handily won this election with over 70% of the vote and continued as president
Finland	3/9/1946	direct to N	After Marshal Mannerheim resigned in the middle of his term the parliament elected Paasikivi to finish out his term
Sweden	9/19/1976	victory to N	The Social Democrats under Olof Palme were replaced in office for the first time in 22 years by a coalition government headed by Centre Party leader Thorbjorn Falldin