country elec_date change comments
Guatemala 1/19/1958 victory to N This election was held after the assasination of Carlos Castillo de Armas, founder of the National Liberation Movement. In this election, the victor, Miguel Ydigoras, ran against the coalition that included the National Liberation Movement. As such, the incumbent party lost here.
Guatemala 3/6/1966 victory to N Prior to election the founder of the Institutional Democratic Party Enrique Peralta Azurdia stages a coup and becomes head of state. His party and the Revolutionary Party were supposed to cooperate in election but founder of former dies and throws a wrench in that whole plan. The PID then loses, resulting in a loss for the incumbent.
Guatemala 3/5/1978 victory to N Coalition that supported previous candidate broke up so no incumbent for this election
Guatemala 1/7/1996 victory to N Previous office holder was independent former human rights ombudsman and he didn't run so there was no incumbent to contest election
Haiti 1/17/1988 victory to N Henri Namphy was leader of previous post-Duvalier Council of Government, this election was to choose a successor. As far as I can tell, Namphy wasn't affiliated with a political party, so there's no incumbent that ran.
Honduras 9/22/1957 changed date; victory to N Current date listed is for legislative elections. The election by the constituent assembly that elected Ramon Villeda Morales was on 11/16/1957, while he also took over for the military junta so there was no incumbent in this race
Honduras 11/29/2009 victory to N interim president Roberto Micheletti was of the liberal party while the winner Porfirio Lobo Sosa was of the national party
Panama 5/9/1948 victory to Y Although Arnulfo Arias Madrid was the last elected president and ran again in 1948, he was formally deposed from office in sept 1941. Following this, there were three interim presidents, the last of which was a member of the same party as our 1948 winner, Domingo Diaz Arosemena. As such, this would technically be a case of incumbent victory.
Panama 5/11/1952 victory to N incumbent was interim president Alcibiades Arosemena of the authentic revolutionary party, and victor was Jose Antonia Remon Cantera of an electoral alliance the CPN. The CPN included the incumbent's party but obviously it's a much broader coalition and can't be said to be representative of the incumbent.
Panama 5/4/2014 victory to N Though the victor was the incumbent vice president, he broke from the incumbent's party and challenged them and won.
St. Kitts and Nevis 7/3/1995 victory to N People's Action Movement leader Simmonds was incumbent PM and the PAM lost this election, with the Labor Party leader becoming PM afterwards
St. Vincent 12/9/1974 victory to N A PPP government was formed in the previous election with an independent MP breaking the tie between the PPP and SVLP in the former's favor. Then the SVLP won this election.
Bolivia 1/5/1947 change to Y Head of state transferred from Tomas Monje Gutierrez to Enrique Hertzog Garaizabal
Bolivia 5/6/1951 victory to N So incumbent regime resigns in favor of a military junta when it looked like the opposition party was going to win
Bolivia post 1985
Brazil 10/3/1955 victory to Y Nereu Ramos of the Social Democratic Party was incumbent and Jusceline K. of Social Democratic Party won, so technically counts as victory.
Brazil 4/14/1964 victory to N; added day Post 1964 coup, Mazilli was elevated from president to chamber of deputies to presidency on interim basis but upon this election the military government gets installed so no incumbent really ran or won
Brazil post 2002 added missing election rounds; altered elecnumbers accordingly
Chile 1946-1970 added missing indirect election rounds, altered elecnumbers accordingly
Ecuador 6/2/1968 victory to N; change to Y Otto Arosemena Gomez was interim incumbent after coup, Jose Maria Velasco Ibarra was victor, both were from different parties
Ecuador 5/25/1997 victory to Y This took place after Abdala Bucaram was removed from office by the congress and Fabian Alarcon took office. The referendum was meant to confirm these actions that had already been taken and so it passing was a victory for the then-incumbent (Alarcon)
Guyana 7/10/1978 type to R This was miscoded as a legislative election, the date was that of a referendum
Peru 6/10/1945 change to Y power shifted between manuel prado ugarteche and jose bustamante y rivero, both of different parties
Peru 6/17/1956 victory to N power shifted between manuel odria and manuel prado ugarteche, both of different parties
Uruguay 10/31/1999 victory to Y power switched from Julio Sanguinetti to Jorge Battle but both are from the Colorado Party and Sanguinetti didn't run again
Uruguay 10/31/2004 victory to N; change to Y power shifted from Jorge Battle to Tabare Vazquez so incumbent lost and there was a change in power
Bhutan 5/31/2013 added missing election rounds
Sri Lanka 12/19/1988 change to Y PM Ranasinghe Premadasa was elected to succeed incumbent president Jayawardene
South Korea 12/18/1997 victory to N; change to Y power switched from incumbent Kim Young Sam to Kim Dae Jung
Philippines 2/7/1986 victory to Y; change to N Ferdinand Marcos technically "won" the election despite it being rigged, he was forced out 19 days after the election took place which is a separate event from the election. The outcome of the election was victory with no change
North Korea all elections changed type to L from X These should all be parliamentary elections and the dates correspond to legislative election dates in Nohlen. Presidential elections did take place from 1972 until 1990. The office was vacant from 1994 until 1998 and was thereafter abolished as Kim Jong-Il was given title of Eternal President.
Myanmar 11/8/2015 victory to N Thein Sein of the USDP ended up losing the presidency after Htin Kyaw of the NLD was elected president by the legislature´┐Ż after which he approves the bill that allows Aung San Suu Kyi to become State Chancellor or whatever
Mongolia 7/9/2017 victory to Y newly elected president and professional sambo wrestler Khaltmagiin Battulga of the DP succeeded his fellow DP member Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj
Kyrgyz Republic 12/11/2016 change to N the referendum expanded executive power at the expense of the legislature and judiciary so would be considered a victory, but president Atambayev stayed in office until November of the following year
Japan 6/22/1980 change to Y leadership changed from interim PM Masayoshi Ito to Zendo Suzuki, both within the LDP
Indonesia 9/20/2004 victory to N power shifted from president Megawati of the Indonesian Democratic Party to president Yudhoyono of the Democrat Party, pretty easy to see how those got confused
East Timor 5/9/2007 victory to N power shifted from Xanana Gusmao to Jose Ramos-Horta. While it would seem that Ramos-Horta was a political ally of Gusmao, this was in an informal sense as Ramos-Horta was an independent and Gusmao founded a new party just ahead of general elections to try and become PM. As such, it doesn't appear to me that there was any incumbent running for the presidency at least.
Algeria 2004-2014 change to N all changes to N. Bouteflika was in power during this time so there obviously wasn't a change in head of state
Egypt 9/11/1971 victory to Y This referendum passing was an important step in solidifying Sadat's rule after he assumed power following Nasser's death and didn't appreciably diminish his power as ruler.
Egypt 10/2/1976 date from 9/16/1976 to 10/2/1976 In the Noehlen book the date of the presidential election this year is Oct 2, though in the political handbook it says that Sadat "accepted" a second term on Sept 16. Not sure what "accepted" means but I assume that means he agreed to run again since it's not like he was going to lose, but can't be exactly sure. In any case, the actual election certainly took place on Oct 2.
Egypt 1976-1981 added elec_day values For referendums in this period added elec_day for date actual election took place, but not announcement days
Egypt 10/13/1981 type to X Another presidential referendum that was coded as a referendum
Egypt 3/26/2007 type to R miscoded as a presidential election, was a constitutional referendum
Egypt 5/26/2014 type to X miscoded as a referendum, was the election of Sisi
Iran 7/28/1989 victory to Y; added elec_day this referendum changed the requirements to become supreme leader which Khamenei obviously wanted since he wanted to occupy that office, also expanded powers of presidency which he passed to his ally Rafsanjani as well. I feel like this ammounts to an electoral victory. Also added date of voting for referendum (28).
Iran 6/17/2005 added second round of voting altered elecnumber stuff and what have you to reflect second round of voting
Libya 7/7/2012 changed date; deleted Announced row the date wasn't for the indirect presidential election being referenced here, it was for the parliamentary election that preceded it. Entered the corrected date and deleted the announced row since it was the announcement date for the wrong election.
Sudan 4/21/1968 victory to Y; change to N Mahjoub remained in office through this election until he was removed in a coup the following year
Syria 9/1/1961 type to X; direct to N; elec_day changed This was mistakenly coded as as a constitutional referendum while the actual election of interest was the indirect presidential one that occurred two weeks after the referendum.
Syria 12/3/1971 change to Y Presidency switched to Hafez al-Assad from Ahmad al-Khatib
Tunisia 12/21/2014 victory to N Winner Beji Caid Essebsi ran directly against the incumbent Moncef Marzouki, who was caretaker president
Turkey 5/2/1954 change to N Adnan Menderes remained PM from 1950 to 1960 uninterrupted, was also during a time when one party rule was being solidified.
Turkey 6/5/1977 victory to N; change to Y though no party won a majority, Demirel's government fell in mid-June and he was replaced by Ecevit as PM even though Ecevit's government also fell in early July and then Demirel came back to power. This is obviously a short tenure but the sequence of event is election, incumbent loses office, and opposition takes power so I feel this is the correct coding
Cape Verde 12/17/1995 change to N PM Carlos Veiga was first came to power as PM on April 4, 1990 and stayed in that office until July 2000, so there was no change in the PM's office due to this election
Guinea-Bissau 1972/1989 date changes for actual elections that took place changed election dates to reflect the actual dates which indirect voting took place, not the legislative elections that preceded such votes
Equatorial Guinea 9/22/1968 added second round of voting altered elecnumber stuff and what have you to reflect second round of voting
Equatorial Guinea 11/13/2011 victory to Y This referendum was speculated to be a step in the president handpicking his son to succeed him. But either way the government fixed the election in order to get the plebiscite to pass so it doesn't make sense to list victory as N
Mali 4/12/1992 added first round of voting only listed the second round of voting, which actually had the date for the first round of voting. Adjusted elecnumbers and what have you accordingly
Senegal 3/22/1959 date to 9/5/1960 the original 1959 date was when Senegal was part of the Federation of Mali, while the election date was that of a legislative election. The next indirect presidential election was on 9/5/1960 which took place after Senegal left the union in August and was the same day the country declared itself the Republic of Senegal
Benin 1/19/1964 type to X type was originally R but the date for the referendum that year was on Jan 5 not Jan 19
Benin 7/28/1968 type to X; change to N this was a presidential referendum but as was decided with Egypt these are presidential elections not referendums. Also change to N because the president was appointed by the military prior to the election and this election was just a confirmation of this appointment
Benin 1/5/1964 added referendum election, previously missing added this election, see 1/19/1964 entry for issue with previous referendum coding and date
Benin 3/31/1968 change to N this referendum was on establishing a presidential system with no term limits and a unicameral legislature. The next leadership change that took place was following the appointment of Zinsou as president following the annulled elections on 5/5/1968
Benin 3/9/1970 victory to N the incumbent government was military and the three candidates were civilians, so no incumbent could have won to make victory Y. in addition, the election results were annulled and all three candidates put into a rotating presidency type of thing
Mauritania 3/11/2007 added first round of voting
Guinea 1/27/1961 victory to Y; change to N (both in announcement row) fixed typo where the announcement row had the victory and change reversed
Liberia 7/19/1997 added victory and change codings victory and change were just missing for some reason, coded N and Y, respectively. Interim president Ruth Perry was replaced by National Patriotic Party leader and all around lovely guy Charles Taylor
Liberia 10/11/2005 victory to N; change to Y Interim president Charles Gyude Bryant did not run nor was he the same party as the ultimate victor, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf
Sierra Leone 5/3/1957 change to N Sir Milton Margai had been initially been made chief minister in 1953-54 according to Britannica so he would already have been the incumbent technically
Sierra Leone 3/7/2018 added victory and change codings
Ghana 12/7/2008 added second round of voting second round of voting was missing
Gabon 8/30/2009 change to Y after president bongo died, rose francine rogombe took over as interim president and then in this election ali ben bongo won, so there was change in the individual
Central African Republic 12/28/1994 type to R this was incorrectly coded as a presidential election, was the date of a referendum and no presidential election was held this year
Congo 6/2/1992 added second round of voting
Burkina Faso 5/14/1978 added second round of voting
Democratic Republic of Congo 6/24/1973 deleted record this was a duplicate of the referendum held in Congo-Brazzaville. No referendum was held in DRC on this date
Kenya 12/27/2007 victory to Y; change to N Though he ran under another party banner, President Mwai Kibaki was reelected as a result of this election. I think the confusion might have been that Raila Odinga was made the first ever prime minister after post-election negotiations.
Djibouti 4/9/1999 change to Y power switched from Gouled to Guelleh
Ethiopia 6/14/1987 date to 9/10/1987 previous date was that of the legislative election, september date is that of the actual indirect presidential election, which took place one day after the new legislature convened.
Ethiopia 5/15/2005 change to N leadership remained with Meles Zenawi following this election
South Africa 5/26/1948 change to Y The UP-DP-SALP government of Jans Smuts fell to the NP in this election, resulting in a change of power from Jans Smuts to Daniel F. Malan
Namibia 11/7/1989 date to 2/16/1990; direct to N the date originally listed (11/7/1989) was that of the constituent assembly elections that took place after the UN-brokered deal for Namibian independence, the first elections of Sam Nujoma took place on the revised date and were indirect, with the majority SWAPO assembly electing him rather than direct vote
Namibia 11/30/1999 change to N Sujoma remained in power following this election
Namibia 11/15/2004 change to Y SWAPO retained presidency but Sujoma opted not to run and the party nominated Pohamba in his stead
Cuba 10/xx/1990 deleted change and victory coding this election was voided, victory and change codings should be blank
Egypt 9/xx/2011 deleted change and victory coding this election was voided, victory and change codings should be blank
Lesotho 1/27/1970 type to Voided; deleted change and victory coding incumbent anulled election before results could be certified and declared state of emergency
Lesotho 5/26/2012 victory to N; change to Y incumbent PM not reelected while Tom Thabane of the opposition ABC managed to create a coalition and took over as PM. Probably mistaken cause incumbent party won a majority and was initially reported they had "won"
Comoros general added all second voting rounds; adjusted elecnumbers accordingly almost all second round codings were missing
Mauritius 8/7/1967 victory to Y; change to N prior to winning this election Seewoosagur Ramgoolam was chief minister and premier under British controlled Mauritius so he would be the incumbent
Mauritius 7/3/2005 victory to N; change to Y Berenger of the MMM/MSM alliance was defeated by the MLP-led coalition and replaced by Navin Ramgoolam
Australia 5/9/1953 deleted record This was an off election for part of the Senate, however this does not result in a renewed competition for the PM's office, which makes coding victory/defeat meaningless so this isn't an appropriate election to include in the data
Papua New Guinea 5/6/1982 victory to N Julius Chan of the PPP knocked Somare out of power in 1980 with a vote of no confidence and was the incumbent for this election, which Somare's Pangu party won, returning Somare to power
Samoa 5/10/1961 date to 2/4/1961 the original date listed was that of the countries independence/constitutional referendum, not parliamentary elections
Micronesia general removed leg elections that did not coincide with prez elections see justification document
Palau 9/22/1992 added first round of voting
Palau 11/4/2008 added first round of voting
Nauru 12/6/1980 victory to Y; change to N; added day Hammer DeRoburt was reelected, also added the day of the month
Netherlands 5/25/1977 victory to N Incumbent PM was Joop Den Uyl of the Labor party, but his govt collapsed after his party and the CDA had a falling out. But after the elections CDA leader Andreas Van Agt formed a minority government with the VVD, so the incumbent was replaced by former governing partner
Belgium 11/8/1981 change to Y On April 8, 1981 Wilfried Martens of the CVP resigns in favor of Mark Eyskens. Then Eyskens triggers calling of elections on Sept 21 1981, after which Martens then forms government which receives approval on Dec 17, 1981. All this to say, there was change in the HOG after this election
Luxembourg 6/7/2015 victory to N The incumbent pushed for all three provisions in this referendum, including the introduction of term limits. All three were rejected by voters, meaning this was a loss
France 12/5/1965 runoff to [1,2] Everything was formatted and dated correctly to reflect the two rounds of voting, runoff just got left with N on accident it appears
Switzerland 10/25/1959 victory to N due to tie in number of seats changed victory to N, see coding justification
Switzerland 10/27/1963 victory to N b/c the last election resulted in a tie, there was no incumbent here
Switzerland 10/29/1967 victory to N due to tie in number of seats changed victory to N, see coding justification
Switzerland 10/31/1971 victory to N b/c the last election resulted in a tie, there was no incumbent here
Switzerland 10/21/1979 victory to N due to tie in number of seats changed victory to N, see coding justification
Switzerland 10/18/1987 change to N Free Democratic Party retained plurality in Federal Assembly
Switzerland 10/20/1991 change to N Free Democratic Party retained plurality in Federal Assembly
Switzerland 10/22/1995 victory to Y; change to N Free Democratic Party retained plurality in Federal Assembly
Switzerland 10/24/1999 change to N Free Democratic Party retained plurality in Federal Assembly
Switzerland 10/21/2007 change to N Swiss People's Party retained plurality in the Federal Assembly
Switzerland 10/23/2011 change to N Swiss People's Party retained plurality in the Federal Assembly
Switzerland 10/18/2015 change to N Swiss People's Party retained plurality in the Federal Assembly
Spain 12/15/1976 victory to Y; added elec_day This referendum was heavily pushed for by the newly appointed PM Adolfo Suarez Gonzalez and the fairly new king Juan Carlos de Borbon
Spain 12/6/1978 victory to Y Again this referendum was part of the project for democratization pushed by Adolfo Suarez Gonzalez and the king so it's approval is a victory for the government
Poland 11/5/1995 added first round of voting
Poland 10/8/2000 runoff to N runoff was listed as 2, but no runoff ocurred
Poland 10/9/2005 added first round of voting
Poland 5/25/2015 added first round of voting
Hungary 1949-1985 added change values
Czechoslovakia 6/8/1990 altered victory and change in "Announced" row to reflect those in "Vote, Early" row for some reason the victory and change values were opposite of what was in the Vote, Early row
Macedonia 6/1/2008 victory to Y; change to N The VMRO-DPMNE won a pretty large victory and incumbent PM Gruevski formed a new government
Macedonia 6/5/2011 victory to Y; change to N VMRO-DPMNE again got the most seats and PM Gruevski formed a new government
Croatia 1/24/2000 added second round of voting as always, adjuste elecnumbers accordingly
Serbia 9/21/1997 added second round of voting; event to "Anulled" for second round; added new election event for 12/7/1997 and 12/21/1997 the election listed here had two rounds but the second was anulled due to low turnout and the election was rerun for the December dates listed
Serbia 9/29/2002 date for second round to 10/13/2002; event to "Anulled" the date was for the separate elections held in December, election got anulled due to low turnout
Serbia 12/8/2002 added observation this had erroneously been listed as the second round of the previous election. Added here, was anulled due to low turnout again
Serbia 5/6/2012 victory to N; change to Y the incumbent PM Mirko Cvetkovic was a compromise independent while the winner was from a coalition of several parties. So there wasn't an incument and the victor ran in a new coalition of several parties.
Denmark 1/10/1984 date for "Announced" to 12/16/1983 a typo had the month for the Announced record at 0, so I put the date that the previous parliament was dissolved which triggered these early elections
San Marino Sep-51 victory to Y the communist-socialist governing alliance continued after this election. It lasted between 1945 and 1957
San Marino 12/8/2019 victory to N; change to Y coding was missing here
Kosovo 6/8/2014 victory to N; change to Y following 6 months of negotiations Isa Mustafa of the LDK became PM, taking over from Hashim Thaci of the PDK who remained in the government as foreign minister
Greece 7/29/1973 victory to Y; change to N The junta of papadopoulos had pushed for this referendum in order to put the nail in the coffin of the monarchy, and would therefore be a victory since it passed. But there was also no change in leadership due to the referendum so change is N.
Cyprus 2/14/1988 added second round of voting
Cyprus 2/7/1993 added second round of voting
Cyprus 2/8/1998 added second round of voting
Cyprus 1/28/2018 victory for first round to Y changed victory in first round to match outcome in second round of voting
Bulgaria 1/24/2017 in "Announced" victory to N; change to Y the victory and change values were the opposite in the "Announced" row, changed to match the Vote row
Romania Mar-74 deleted victory and change this was a Deadline Not Met event so the victory and change should be blank
Romania 1992-2000 type to X these dates corresponded to runoffs for presidential elections
Romania 11/16/2014 added first round of voting
Romania 5/2/2017 deleted record this date corresponded to no legislative or presidential election that I was able to locate
Russia 3/17/1991 victory to Y Referendum. Gorbachev pushed for this referendum in the hopes that voters would give him a mandate to keep the Soviet Union together. Though this ultimately failed, he did win the referendum so this should be counted as victory
Russia 7/3/1996 added runoff numbers runoff columns had Y instead of the actual runoff numbers
Lithuania 6/13/2004 added second round of voting; victory to N prior to election Rolandas Paksas was impeached and the speaker of the Seimas Paulauksas was sworn in as president. Paksas was not allowed to run in the election and Adamkas, a rival of Paksas, won the election.
Lithuania 5/17/2009 victory to N incumbent Adamkus was an independent as was the victor of this election Dalia Grybauskaite so it's impossible to say that there was incumbent victory
Lithuania 5/11/2014 added first round of voting
Ukraine 6/26/1994 victory to N incumbent Leonid Kravchuk ran against and lost to Leonid Kuchma
Ukraine 10/31/2004 event to Voided this was the first attempt to hold a second round of voting but the Supreme Council refused to certify the results so another was held. I also changed the sequence to 3 for the second round of voting that actually got held
Ukraine 5/25/2014 runoff to N runoff was listed as 2, but no runoff ocurred
Armenia 3/16/1998 added first round of voting
Armenia 11/1/2018 added victory and change codings to "Announced" event
Georgia 11/5/1995 victory to Y; change to N Eduard Shevardnandze, who had been in power since 1992, handily won this election with over 70% of the vote and continued as president
Finland 3/9/1946 direct to N After Marshal Mannerheim resigned in the middle of his term the parliament elected Paasikivi to finish out his term
Sweden 9/19/1976 victory to N The Social Democrats under Olof Palme were replaced in office for the first time in 22 years by a coalition government headed by Centre Party leader Thorbjorn Falldin