*Last updated March 2, 2021
The Rulers, Elections, and Irregular Governance (REIGN) dataset is the most robust leader-month data capturing national electoral process and leadership change. As of April 2019, it contains over 130,000 unique leader-month observations. REIGN was originally created by Curtis Bell, and provides up-to-date coding for leadership characteristics and election scheduling/outcomes.
REIGN is updated montly and released pubicly on the first Tuesday of the month. Alongside the REIGN data, you will also find a link to the most current REIGN blog updates provided by One Earth Future.
The ELection VIolence (ELVI) Events dataset is a new offering by the OEF forecasting team that builds upon the National Elections Across Democracy and Autocracy (NELDA) dataset and its election violence outcome indicators. We utilize a combination of publicly avaiable data and proprietary data to produce monthly forecasts for the risk of general election related violence in all confirmed and anticipated national election events covering both leadership elections and constitutional referendums. We will soon implement full country coverage for ELVI, including microstates and island nations.
OEF Forecasting hosts a medium blog called the Die is Forecast. This blog is dedicated to technical analyses and code vignettes regarding our REIGN data and CoupCast/ELVI forecasting projects. Feel free to check it out here if you interested in seeing how we use REIGN data to predict and understand the drivers of political violence and instability.